Afghan Commentary Post

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نهایی هتگفت فرار ازواقیت ها

- May 09, 2026

هزینهٔ فرار از واقعیت برای افغانستان پیش‌بینی اخیر دکتر Maria Sultan ، تحلیلگر دفاعی پاکستانی، مبنی بر این‌که افغانستان شاید نتواند به‌عنوان یک دولت متمرکز و یکپارچه دوام بیاورد، موجی از خشم را در میان سیاستمداران، روشنفکران و فعالان افغان در دیاسپورا برانگیخت. این واکنش قابل درک بود. نهاد امنیتی پاکستان در طول تاریخ سیاست‌هایی را دنبال کرده که بسیاری از افغان‌ها باور دارند هدف آن ضعیف، متفرق و وابسته نگه‌داشتن افغانستان بوده است. بنابراین بدگمانی نسبت به صداهایی که از آن فضا بیرون می‌آید، غیرمنطقی نیست. اما بخش بزرگی از این انتقادها به‌جای روبه‌رو شدن با واقعیت‌های ساختاری‌ای که به این تحلیل قدرت می‌بخشید، تنها بر زیر سؤال بردن پیام‌رسان متمرکز شد. همین فرار از واقعیت است که نیاز به بررسی عمیق‌تر دارد. کارنامهٔ نهادی دولت مرکزی افغانستان در حافظهٔ معاصر هرگز نتوانسته است به‌گونهٔ پایدار درآمد داخلی کافی برای ادارهٔ خود تولید کند؛ بدون اتکا به کمک‌های خارجی، مالیات‌های غیررسمی مرزی، حواله‌های مهاجران یا حمایت نظامی بیرونی. بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه به کمک خارجی وابسته‌ان...

Afghanistan and the cost of Evasion. The debate over the Afghanistan fragility

- May 09, 2026

Afghanistan and the Cost of Evasion by wahab Raofi A recent prediction by Pakistani defense analyst Dr. Maria Sultan that Afghanistan may not survive intact as a centralized state triggered immediate outrage among Afghan politicians, intellectuals, and diaspora activists. The reaction was understandable. Pakistan’s security establishment has historically pursued policies that many Afghans believe were designed to keep Afghanistan weak, divided, and strategically dependent. Suspicion toward voices emerging from that environment is therefore not irrational. Yet much of the criticism stopped at questioning the messenger rather than confronting the structural realities that gave the argument its force in the first place. That evasion deserves closer examination. The Institutional Record Afghanistan’s central government has not, in modern memory, consistently generated enough domestic revenue to sustain itself without dependence on foreign aid, informal border taxation, remittance...

Memory of a Tree: Logar Afghanistan

- May 05, 2026

Memory of a Tree I am old now, and I feel it. The small stream that once fed my roots has slowed to a trickle, then to memory. My leaves, which once blazed gold and amber each autumn, hang pale and thin. My trunk, which sheltered generations beneath its shade, trembles now when the wind comes strong from the mountains. Even the birds have mostly gone — where once hundreds gathered at dusk, filling the garden with a chorus that rivaled the water, now only a few arrive, glance about as though disappointed, and leave. I am a tree in a locked garden. The man who inherited this place comes occasionally. He walks the paths without looking at anything, collects the overripe apples and a handful of grapes, and leaves. I hear the iron gate clang shut. I hear the lock catch. And then silence, until the next time. But it was not always this way. — — — The property belonged to a widow named Shirin Gul. Her husband died when she was still young, leaving her with one h...

Afghan Pakistan Conflict: The Durand Line Delusion

- May 01, 2026

By Wahab Raofi Pakistani warplanes have recently struck villages in Afghanistan’s Kunar province, near the border. Civilians were reported killed. Kabul called it aggression; Islamabad described it as retaliation against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan militants operating from Afghan soil. The Taliban denied it. Neither side agreed on the facts, let alone a remedy. This was not a new argument. It was the same argument the two countries have been having, in varying registers of violence and diplomacy, since Pakistan’s creation in 1947. At the center of it sits the Durand Line—a roughly 2,640-kilometer mountainous frontier drawn by the British colonial administrator Sir Mortimer Durand in 1893, dividing Pashtun populations between what are now Pakistan and Afghanistan. For over a century, Afghanistan has refused to formally recognize it. Pakistan has never agreed to renegotiate it. In the gap between those two positions, people die. The ethnic argument—and its limits ...

Updated version of Iran War

- April 24, 2026

The Pundit’s Free Ride: How Media Cheers War Then Walks Away On the first days of a war, confidence comes cheap. Precision strikes are called decisive. Deterrence is declared restored. Early success is treated not as a moment to question assumptions, but as proof that the assumptions were right all along. Weeks or months later, the tone shifts. Progress becomes uncertain. Objectives blur. Casualties mount. And some of the same voices that welcomed the opening salvos begin to hedge, then to distance themselves. What was framed as strategic clarity is recast as miscalculation. Questions emerge—about purpose, planning, and exit strategy—that might have been asked before the first strike. This pattern is not new. But it is visible again. Consider a model case. Imagine a conflict beginning on February 28, 2026. Early reports emphasize speed and precision. Much of the commentariat responds in kind. Gerard Baker , editor-at-large of The Wall Street Journal , captures the mood: “You ...

The Iran War: How Media Cheers War Then walks Away