Afghan Commentary Post

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Has Bagram Lost Its Strategic Edge for America? Location is not enough in an age of drones, hostile neighbors and forced withdrawals.

- October 07, 2026

Last September, at a news conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Trump said the United States was trying to get Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan back "because they need things from us." He also said the base mattered because of its closeness to where China makes its nuclear weapons, according to The New York Times. His reasoning is understandable. Bagram sits close to China, Iran and Central Asia, and it could serve as a platform for watching terrorist groups. I wish America could have a presence there. But the right question today is not whether Bagram's location is good. It is whether location is still enough. I believe its value has declined, for four reasons. First, the Taliban. The Taliban government controls Bagram, so the United States could return only with its consent or by force. Consent would mean negotiating with a government Washington does not recognize, probably at a political price. Force would mean a new war. Mr. Trump's ow...

Wars Rooted in Political and Social Dysfunction Cannot Be Solved by Military Force Alone

- October 04, 2026

The Misperception America Needs to Correct Wars rooted in political and social dysfunction cannot be solved by military force alone Americans tend to blame wars that go badly on the people running them. In a recent Washington Post column, Theodore R. Johnson asks whether President Trump will fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and argues that the Pentagon's deeper problems would remain even if he does. He is right to look past one secretary. But his argument points to a larger misperception: we rarely ask whether the military was ever capable of solving the problem it was given. The twenty years the United States spent in Afghanistan teach a lesson that should have been learned long ago: political dysfunction cannot be repaired by military power alone. Washington spent two decades and billions of dollars building Afghan security forces, yet those forces collapsed within weeks in 2021. The problem was never just whether soldiers had enough weapons or whether American troops ...

Islamabad Conference

- September 30, 2026

Islamabad Conference Afghanistan's fragmentation invites foreign interference, and only the Taliban can close the door This week, in a hall in Islamabad, Afghan political figures opposed to the Taliban sat alongside officials from several regional countries under a title that left little room for subtlety: "Afghan Predicament and the Trajectory to Peace: Domestic Collapse and Government Without Legitimacy." To its critics, the two-day conference is one more example of Pakistani meddling in Afghan affairs. To its defenders, it is a rare forum for Afghans shut out of Kabul. Both views contain some truth, and neither addresses the more important question: why do Afghans so often find themselves seeking solutions in foreign capitals? The setting makes the question harder to ask. Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, relations between Kabul and Islamabad have steadily worsened. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of allowing the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate ...

The Old War is Dead. Why Pakistan and Afghanistan Must Talk

- September 28, 2026

The Old War Is Dead: Why Pakistan and Afghanistan and Pakist shall Follow the Law of Nature This week, Pakistani aircraft struck targets in Khost, Paktia, and Kandahar, what Islamabad called precision strikes against militants who had launched drone attacks into Pakistan. Kabul reported civilian casualties, and the Taliban warned of consequences. Since 2021, when the Taliban returned to power, this script has become tragically familiar. The imbalance looks obvious. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state with a large army and modern jets. Afghanistan has no air force, a shattered economy, and a government most of the world refuses to recognize. The temptation in Islamabad is to believe that enough pressure will force Kabul to sever ties with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). But that calculation rests on a twentieth-century idea of military power. The War That Was For most of the Cold War, victory went to the side with the biggest armies, the most bases, and the fastest aircraf...

Pakistan is Fighting the Militancy It Once Nurtured.

- September 21, 2026

Pakistan Is Fighting the Militancy It Once Nurtured Pakistan cannot bomb its way out of this crisis by killing Afghan civilians in the name of fighting the TTP. It needs to abandon its old approach of keeping Afghanistan under its thumb and adopt a citizen-to-citizen approach instead. By Wahab Raofi On Friday, September 18, 2026, worshippers gathered for prayers at a mosque inside the Old Police Lines in Kohat, in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the compound gate. Gunmen then stormed the site, and a second blast went off near the Special Branch building during the exchange of fire. At least 23 people were killed — including five police officers, eleven civilians, and seven of the attackers — and more than 50 were wounded. Security forces needed until the next morning to clear the compound. The attack raised the familiar question: who is behind the violence? The answer is murkier than usual. Dawn reported that It...

Pakistan Will Not Come to the Defense Of Saudi Arabia. Pakistan Punches Beyond Its Weight

- September 19, 2026

Saudi Arabia Has Been Attacked. Is Pakistan Answering the Phone? Pakistan is punching beyond its weight, and with so many problems of its own at home, it is ill-placed to rush to Saudi Arabia's aid. On Friday, September 18, a suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden vehicle into a police compound in Kohat, in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The blast struck a mosque during Friday prayers, killing at least 21 people and wounding more than 100. Gunmen then stormed the compound, and a prolonged firefight followed before Pakistani forces killed several of the attackers. The timing matters. Two days earlier, Pakistan's defence minister had said the moment had come to implement the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The same military being asked to help defend the Gulf is still struggling to secure its own northwest, and that gap between commitment and capacity is the real story of this pact. To see why, it helps to start with what Paki...

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