A Sword Hangs over Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s Head
By Wahab Raofi
A
former university professor named Ashraf Ghani wrote a book in 2009 entitled
“Fixing Failed States,” and now than he is President of Afghanistan, Ghani must
be wondering if his book needs a complete rewrite – as he finds himself presiding
over a state teetering on the brink of collapse.
Ghani and co-author Clare Lockhart
subtitled their book “A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World,” which seems
something of an embarrassment now as we see, after a year-and-half under
Ghani’s reign, Afghanistan itself remains fractured.
And the prospects for 2016 appear grim. In
January, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction published
a quarterly report to the U.S. Congress that cites the “fragile and worsening”
condition of the economy and security climate in this war-torn country.
Brinton
Crane, in his influential book “The Anatomy of Revolution,” identified telltale
signs that occurred before key revolutions throughout history – and which were
mirrored in Afghanistan during the 1970’s, leading up to the assassination of Sardar
Mohammad Daud Khan in a bloody coup d'état.
Today, Afghanistan
simmers with events that could signal yet another revolution. The political environment
is volatile.
The Taliban has taken advantage of that
disarray by carrying out a series of deadly attacks, inhibiting freedom of
movement. Major roads in the south are impassable, and the country as a whole
appears on the verge of breakdown. It led First Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum
to don his military uniform, as once he did when fighting alongside Russians in
the war against the Mujahedeen.
On Feb. 15, former Jihadi commander
Abdul Rasou Sayyaf demanded that the Afghan Unity Government allow Mujahedeen fighters
to the battle against Taliban forces.
"If people are not allowed to
mobilize against the enemy to defend the country,” Sayyaf said, “then the
people will be compelled to take action and defend their soil. This will
undoubtedly lead to disorder.”
Afghans are fleeing by the thousands in
search of a better life elsewhere. As part of this chain of critical events,
some political activists are calling for the removal of Ghani from his
presidency through a Loya Jirga – a meeting of tribal leaders and influential individuals. Among
them, former Afghan president Sibghatullah
Mojaddedi has criticized Ghani as a novice who suffers from a lack of
government experience.
But if the elected Afghan president is removed,
it may be tantamount to handing the government over to the Taliban.
There’s no doubt that some of Ghani’s calamities
are self-inflicted, which hurt his image at home and abroad, both as a leader
and as the worlds’ second-most influential thinker (as he was ranked in a
worldwide poll by Prospect Magazine in 2013). Much of the damage has been
caused by his micro-managing of state affairs, his softness on the Taliban, and
his failure to carry out campaign promises.
Ghani’s style of governance forebodes social
upheaval. Despite the unity government forged by the mediation of U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry, various ethnic rivals continue to jockey for
power and muck up the already slow-moving engine of government. It took Ghani seven
months to form a cabinet. The positions of Secretary of Defense and many other governor
and minister posts have yet to be filled by Chief Executive Officer Abdullah
Abdullah, who presides over an ongoing, contentious and painstaking process.
However, many circumstances are beyond President
Ghani’s reach. The country suffers from a chronic socio-economical sclerosis.
Aside from being land-locked, Afghanistan
lacks natural resources and is losing its educated, skilled populace in a brain
drain. During almost four decades of war, the country has seen its educated
elite flee abroad, while its private and public institutions fall apart.
As a result, Afghanistan is unable to generate
enough revenue to pay public servants, provide basic services for citizens or enforce
the law.
Today, the insurgency may not be as much
a problem as a weakened government that is unable to spread its wings beyond
the city of Kabul. Couple that with a disturbing culture of dependency and a lack
of personal responsibility among the citizens, and you have percolating
disaster.
Alas, many who call for the removal of President
Ghani are those who served in previous, ineffective regimes. Their credentials
aren’t impressive.
However, Ghani cannot ignore the warning
signs. He still has a chance; Afghans have no viable alternative at this point.
They are war-weary and not inclined to take to the streets in revolution. They
know that if the government fails, the Taliban wins.
Ghani the author clearly underestimated
the challenge of fixing failed states. Ghani the President can avoid the Sword
of Damocles that fell on Sardar Daud’s neck by acknowledging the creeping
danger and engaging his opposition.
One giant step in the right direction
would be to give the provinces more freedom to self-govern. That would remove a
huge burden from his governance and perhaps change his trajectory.
And – maybe someday – he might actually
be remembered as an influential thinker who helped fix a failing state.
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