Can Afghanistan Survive Its Crises?

 

By Wahab Raofi

Afghans have a saying: “What comes out of a mug is what is inside the mug.” As Afghanistan faces a decades-long series of major crises, its best hope lies in “what is inside of the mug” – its own people and government. And if the latest news is any indication, it does not bode well for Afghans.

The New York Times reported that a group of lawmakers “blocked the Afghan Parliament’s newly appointed speaker from taking his seat on Sunday, and security forces were dispatched after a scuffle broke out. Members of Parliament on Saturday picked Mir Rahman Rahmani … for the role of speaker despite his just failing to win the number of votes needed to take the job. The turmoil came just a few days after the newly elected Parliament started its first session on Thursday. The election in October was delayed by more than three years and was plagued by vote-rigging and bribery.”

 Chaos in Parliament, rigged elections, corruption at many levels and stalled negotiations with the Taliban over the possible formations of a collation government – it’s a recipe for catastrophic failure.

Since October, U.S. officials have held six rounds of talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, in a bid to end the 18-year war. Those meetings have yet to produce a tangible result. Afghans worry that a bad deal may result in a loss of what has been gained over the past 18 years, especially in terms of human rights and civil liberties. The Taliban continue to carry out deadly attacks in Kabul and elsewhere.

Since Ashraf Ghani took office in 2014, at least 45,000 members of his country’s security forces have been killed. The fear of being blown up by a suicide bomber hangs over each of them on a daily basis.

The Taliban insurgency has left the government in critical condition.

Because of political uncertainty, the coming Afghan presidential election – originally scheduled for July – has now been pushed backed to September, ostensibly because of concerns with the voting process.

Afghans are trying to right their collective ship after two historic traumas. First came the Russian invasion of 1980, and second, the violent civil war that led to the rise of the Taliban, who treat their own people like prisoners of war. Ever since, the country been in a quagmire.

Why are these crises still plaguing Afghanistan? Two primary reasons:

First, the centralized government. The Afghan constitution has allocated enormous responsibility to its president, and Ashraf Ghani has micro-managed affairs of the state to the point of being personally involved in government procurement and appointing commanders, governors and even low-level servants. As a result, the economy has not been creating jobs for the younger generation, and those young people then become fertile ground for recruitment by the Taliban.

Second, the dispute with Pakistan over the Durand Line. Afghanistan and Pakistan both claim ownership of land called Pashtunistan, which was annexed in 1893 to then-British India. The treaty created what is known as the Durand Line, a border that put Pashtunistan in Pakistan. To this day, Afghanistan does not recognize that border. Ever since, the two countries have exchanged bitter words and occasionally gunfire, each accusing the other of interfering with their domestic affairs.

The Afghanistan crises will not end unless those two vital issues are resolved.  

Many Americans believe victory in the Afghanistan war hinges on the amount of money and soldiers the U.S. pours into the cause: more of both would lead to quicker peace. What those Americans don’t understand is that Afghanistan will never be stable until it embraces significant change. Its government is in disarray.

Jared Diamond, in his book Turning Points for Nations in Crisis, writes that the key for individuals coping with a crisis is “selective change.” People who successfully overcome a problem tend to identify and isolate it, figuring out “which parts of their identities are already functioning well and don’t need changing, and which parts are no longer working and do need changing.” Could the same be true for countries? Diamond believes so.

Afghans and their U.S. ally should heed the advice of Diamond and draw a new plan for solving the Afghan crises. But as long as the Afghan government remains smothered in policies which are no longer working and refuses to embrace those that are, the crises will continue.

Foreign military and financial aid will spiral down the drain until internal changes are made.

Of course, individuals and nations sometimes need to rely on friends, but there is always a limit. The U.S. has been helping Afghanistan to overcome its crises, but it’s time for the Afghans to roll up their sleeves and do some hard work. Until that happens, all the help in the world will fail.