Reevaluating Alliances: The Case For U.S.-Russia Rapprochement

 

 

 

Reevaluating Alliances: The Case

For U.S.-Russia Rapprochement

Is Trump’s rapprochement with Russia a calculated strategy aimed at preventing U.S. rivals from forming alliances that could pose a challenge to U.S. national security?

By Wahab Raofi

President Trump is steering U.S. policy on Russia away from confrontation and toward a bold new détente. Following his recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he hailed the conversation as “lengthy and highly productive,” signaling a potential shift in the decades-old dynamic between the two superpowers. However, the warming of relations with Putin has had a chilling effect, sparking a wave of criticism both at home and abroad.

 Domestically, critics argue that aligning closely with Russia undermines democratic values and compromises America's global standing. Writing in The New York Times, Peter Baker, an author of books on President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, points out that Trump’s pivot toward Russia “upends generations of U.S. policy.”

A vocal pushback comes from U.S. European allies:  The Financial Times writes in an opinion piece that the U.S. can no longer be considered a reliable ally for Europe. With growing concerns over Russian aggression, Europeans fear that without U.S. support, they will struggle to defend themselves. The Guardian writes that “Donald Trump bowing before war criminal Putin is a shameful betrayal of Ukraine.”

However, The Diplomat writes that Trump’s approach is a strategically calculated policy designed to address the demands of a rapidly evolving global landscape. Trump’s reproachment with Russia carries broader implications for China. Historically, the opposite was true – Henry Kissinger’s strategic opening to China contributed to the Soviet Union’s eventual collapse.

Over the past several decades, the global political landscape has shifted significantly, with the rise of new players like China demanding a fresh approach. The United States’ rivalry with Russia is outdated and no longer relevant; it diverts U.S. resources from what Trump termed the "China threat."

It is crucial for the U.S. to prevent Russia from aligning with China or, at the very least, maintain its neutrality to avoid the emergence of an anti-U.S. coalition, which could include China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia. That would pose a serious threat to U.S. national security.

In the decades following World War II, the geopolitical landscape was significantly influenced by George F. Kennan's Article X, written in 1947, which advocates the “containment theory” to halt the spread of communism. However, Kennan emphasized the importance of maintaining open diplomatic channels to minimize misunderstandings.

But that was then. As the phrase attributed to British statesman Lord Palmerston noted, "Politics has no permanent friends or enemies, they only have permanent interests.”

U.S. interests require a fresh approach, one that the Trump administration has shaped in sharp contrast to Biden's passive, business-as-usual foreign policy.

“It’s not that President Trump is abandoning the post-World War II order,” said Victoria Coates, vice president for national security and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. “It’s that we are no longer in the post-World War II era, and we have to accept that the geopolitical landscape has shifted.”

Trump isn’t the only president who has sought to improve relations with Russia; Ronald Reagan also navigated this complex relationship. Once a staunch critic of the Soviet Union who  famously referred to it as an "evil empire," Reagan ultimately shifted his stance due to the influence of George Shultz.

As U.S. Secretary of State, Shultz played a crucial role in convincing Reagan to pursue better relations with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. He emphasized the significance of building trust and maintaining open communication. As Shultz stated, "Trust is the coin of the realm. When trust was built up between Gorbachev and Reagan, we were able to make progress."

This reflects his belief that diplomacy, personal relationships, and sustained dialogue were key to easing tensions during the Cold War.

One cannot ignore the fact that the enduring tension of the Cold War in the United States was not solely due to the strength of the Soviet Union, but rather the domestic desire to sustain industrial complexes in the West. One key source on this topic is "The Myth of Soviet Military Supremacy" (1986) by Tom Gervasi. In his book, Gervasi critically examines Western estimates of Soviet military power and argues that they were often inflated to justify increased defense spending in the U.S.

The myth of Russia's military prowess is being put to the test in Ukraine. Over the past three years, the Russian army's underwhelming performance has led analysts to dismiss it as a mere “paper tiger” with logistical miscalculations and poor planning, revealing significant weaknesses in Putin’s forces.

But buyer beware — pressuring Russia into a corner only serves the interests of U.S. rivals. North Korea has deployed troops, signed a mutual defense treaty, and pledged to deepen military ties, while Iran continues supplying drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. These actions send a clear message: if the U.S. clings to its outdated approach toward Russia, it risks fueling a perfect storm of opposition for an anti-American alliance.

By pursuing rapprochement with Russia, the U.S. can strategically outmaneuver its adversaries on the global stage, depriving them of opportunities to form a military and political coalition against it.

The changing geopolitical landscape necessitates a reevaluation of U.S. policy toward Russia. President Trump’s proposed rapprochement is essential in a multipolar world. Engaging with Russia can help prevent hostile alliances from a formidable axis that complicates U.S. efforts on multiple fronts.

This focus would allow the U.S. to allocate resources where they matter most. While concerns about democratic values and the need for a dignified resolution to the Ukraine war are valid, dialogue and diplomacy remain essential for addressing shared threats.

History shows that effective foreign policy must constantly adapt to new realities. Embracing rapprochement with Russia could enhance U.S. national security and contribute to a more stable international order.

European outcries over Trump’s shake-up of foreign policy serves as a wake-up call, but if they are concerned about their security, it should not come at the expense of the United States. For years, European nations have prioritized welfare spending over defense, much like the grasshopper in Aesop’s fable, ignoring the harsh days ahead.

Instead of fearing a U.S.-Russia rapprochement, they should recognize that the real concern lies with China.

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